Cowherd & Middlekauff: MNF Preview and Picks for Dolphins-Steelers

Monday Night Football sets the stage for a cold-weather gut check as the Miami Dolphins meet the Pittsburgh Steelers – two teams fighting to redefine who they are with the season on the line. What jumps out immediately is how differently these offenses want to win games, and how much the weather will force both to lean into uncomfortable territory.

Why Miami’s Physical Shift Matters in This Matchup

The Dolphins were once treated strictly as a finesse team – speed, motion, rhythm, timing. But over the last month, Miami has quietly reshaped its identity into something more postseason-ready. They’re running the football with authority, playing with a tougher edge, and winning games without relying on Tua Tagovailoa to throw for 300 yards.

That evolution matters tonight.

Cold weather typically exposes teams that depend on timing routes and deep shots, but Miami has shown a willingness to win dirty. The run game has become a real avenue of stability, and Mike McDaniel’s creativity is starting to travel in a way it didn’t early in the season.

Pittsburgh’s defense, especially without TJ Watt, loses the ability to dictate protection and force Miami into panic. The Steelers’ pass rush simply isn’t the same without their premier playmaker, and against this version of Miami – more patient, more physical – that’s a major problem.

What also helps Miami is the vibe around the team. They landed in Pittsburgh, played in the snow, embraced the cold, and looked loose doing it. It’s a small thing, but teams that lean into uncomfortable environments don’t usually shrink when the game gets tight.

The Steelers may have the crowd advantage, but Miami looks more connected, more intentional, and more stable heading into the matchup. Give me the underdog.

Colin’s Pick: Dolphins +3

Why Pittsburgh Still Has a Path in a Rock-Fight

For all the criticism, all the inconsistency, and all the offensive frustration, Pittsburgh still finds ways to turn games into fourth-quarter coin flips. And that’s where Mike Tomlin historically thrives.

The Steelers at home are a different animal – the crowd drags opponents into three-hour fistfights they didn’t sign up for. And with Miami stepping into freezing conditions after a week built on physicality, this game could tighten if Pittsburgh gets any spark offensively.

Even without Watt, the Steelers still have enough athletes on defense to muddy up McDaniel’s motion looks and force Miami into long drives. If Pittsburgh forces a turnover or two, this becomes the exact type of game Tomlin loves – low scoring, chaotic, emotional.

Offensively, Pittsburgh won’t be explosive, but they don’t need to be. They just need one or two plays to loosen Miami’s front and keep the crowd alive.

If they can drag this thing into the fourth quarter, they’ll have every chance to steal it and hopefully cover the spread in the process.

John’s Pick: Steelers -3

Final Takeaway: Expect a Gritty, Weather-Driven Monday Night Fight

Miami arrives as the team with more momentum, more balance, and frankly more belief. Pittsburgh arrives as the team with more issues at the moment, but also more history in winning games exactly like this.

The Dolphins may be the safer side, especially given their newfound toughness and Pittsburgh’s injury problems. But counting out Tomlin in a prime-time home game as a favorite has burned bettors for a decade.

Whether Miami’s evolving physicality holds up in the cold, or Pittsburgh drags another opponent into a late-game slog, this Monday Night matchup should be one of the more telling identity tests of the season.

If Miami wins, they become a legitimate team heading into the home stretch. If Pittsburgh wins, the AFC North starts to tighten up a bit.

Either way, it’s going to get cold, messy, and very real very quickly.