Chiefs Will Control Monday Night — And These Are the Bets to Back It Up

Monday Night Football gives us a good one: the Kansas City Chiefs heading to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars. Both teams have talent, but when you look at the matchups, experience, and where each team is trending, Kansas City feels like the sharper side. Here are the three bets I like for this game and why.

Chris Jones Over 0.5 Sacks

They’re only hanging a half sack prop on Chris Jones? I’ll take that every time. Trevor Lawrence isn’t moving anywhere — he’s not escaping a lot of pressure, and Kansas City’s defensive front is heating up. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is built to exploit protection weaknesses, and Jones is too good to stay quiet in this spot. Expect him to win his one-on-ones and finish at least once.

• ✅ Pick: Chris Jones Over 0.5 Sacks.

Patrick Mahomes Over 299.5 Passing Yards

Jacksonville’s defense is opportunistic — they’re great at creating turnovers and getting off the field — but they can still give up chunk plays to elite quarterbacks. Now that Xavier Worthy is back healthy, and with Tyquan Thornton stretching the field alongside Travis Kelce working the middle, this Chiefs offense is starting to open up again.

Mahomes is finding his rhythm. He knows he’s got to put this team on his back more often this year. Jacksonville will move the ball some — Travis Etienne can run, and Brian Thomas Jr. gives them some playmaking — which means Mahomes will have to keep pushing it. That adds up to a big night through the air.

• ✅ Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 299.5 Passing Yards.

Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown

When Kansas City gets inside the five, they’re not running a “tush push.” They’re putting Kareem Hunt in and letting him finish. He’s their hammer near the goal line, and he’s built for those tight-space situations. If I’m picking one player to score a touchdown in this game, it’s Hunt.

• ✅ Pick: Kareem Hunt Anytime TD.

Chiefs -3.5

Hard Rock Bet has the spread at Kansas City -3.5, and that feels a little light. Jacksonville is 3-1 and a home underdog, but this isn’t last year’s version of the team — they’ve been inconsistent, and Lawrence hasn’t taken that next step. Kansas City, meanwhile, is rediscovering its identity. The defense under Spags is nasty again, Jones is locked in, and Trent McDuffie continues to play at a high level.

I like the Chiefs to win by at least a touchdown. Expect a game that’s physical, maybe even ugly at times, but one where Kansas City’s experience and execution pull away late.

• ✅ Pick: Chiefs -3.5 (Win by 7)

Kansas City’s dynasty DNA still shows up when it counts. Monday night will be another reminder that while the rest of the NFL is trying to figure things out, the Chiefs still know exactly who they are.

All odds and lines are presented by our partners at Hard Rock Bet.