CFP Semifinal Betting Trends and Hypothetical Championship Spreads

Here is the breakdown of the action at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook for the CFP Semifinals:

CFP Semifinal 1: Miami Hurricanes @ Ole Miss Rebels (Jan. 8)

Florida bettors are backing the ‘Canes with conviction. We’ve seen the moneyline move significantly as the public and high-handle players alike lock in Miami.

• The Spread: Miami opened as a 3.5-point favorite and remains there. The Hurricanes are drawing 61% of bets and 67% of the handle.
• The Moneyline: We’ve seen a notable shift here. Miami opened at -150 and has moved to -175 due to strong support, with 70% of the money backing Miami to win outright.
• The Total: Bettors are leaning toward a slightly lower-scoring affair than originally projected. The total opened at 52.5 and has ticked down to 51.5, with 54% of the handle on the Under.

CFP Semifinal 2: Oregon Ducks @ Indiana Hoosiers (Jan. 9)

While Miami has the local draw, the Indiana vs. Oregon game is seeing the most lopsided betting splits of the round so far at Hard Rock Bet.

• The Spread: Indiana is holding steady as a 3.5-point favorite, but the handle is overwhelmingly in their favor. The Hoosiers are responsible for 76% of spread bets and a massive 87% of the total spread handle.
• The Moneyline: The one-sidedness continues here, with 90% of the moneyline handle backing Indiana to win outright at -180.
• The Total: The total has moved from 47 to 47.5, with 72% of tickets expecting a higher-scoring game.

Looking Ahead: The Hard Rock Stadium Factor

With the National Championship taking place at Hard Rock Stadium, our trading team has put together some hypothetical “look-ahead” lines. We currently have Miami at +300 to win the National Championship, but the “Home Field” factor is a major storyline if they advance.

Our bookmakers generally value home-field advantage at 2.5 to 3 points, even for a neutral-site final with split attendance, due to the Hurricanes’ familiarity with the stadium and lack of travel.

Hypothetical National Championship Spreads, per Hard Rock Bet:

• Miami vs. Indiana: Indiana would be a 5.5-point favorite.
• Miami vs. Oregon: Oregon would be a 2.5-point favorite.
• Ole Miss vs. Indiana: Indiana would be a 7.5-point favorite.
• Ole Miss vs. Oregon: Oregon would be a 3.5-point favorite.

The Florida perspective is clear

The significant majority of the handle is following the Hurricanes, and if they make it to the final in their home stadium, the betting story will only get bigger.

All referenced odds are subject to change. Live college football odds are available now on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Check out the new and improved Hard Rock Bet News page for more betting insights.