Bucs Win It All? Baker for MVP? Breaking Down NFL Futures as Preseason Kicks Off

Training camps and the preseason are officially underway across the league, giving NFL fans and bettors their first real taste of football for the 2025–26 season. Whose running with the first team? Who looks great in short shorts? Whose making highlight-reel catches five yards out of bounds? The NFL news cycle is officially back in full swing and every headline, highlight, and hype video could be a critical piece of the betting puzzle.

Back in May we took a quick trip through our NFL betting data on the eve of the schedule release to see where things stood. Well, with a few more months of the offseason in the books the betting picture is becoming more and more clear by the day. Here’s what stands out with preseason kicking off.

Most-bet teams to win Super Bowl 60

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (30-1 / +3000)
2. New York Giants (200-1 / +20000)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (40-1 / +4000)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (75-1 / +7500)
5. Cincinnati Bengals (22.5-1 / +2250)
6. Cleveland Browns (250-1 / +25000)
7. Miami Dolphins (75-1 / +7500)

Notably absent are all of the frontrunners on the current Super Bowl odds board. This includes the Ravens and Bills (6.5-1 / +650), Eagles (7-1 / +700), Chiefs (8-1 / +800), and Lions (11-1 / +1100). Notably, the Chiefs are the 29th most-bet team so far. Bettors seem to be looking for value a little further down the betting sheet.

Bucs to lift the Lombardi?

With just over a month left until the 25/26 NFL season kicks off, looking at single wagers the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most-bet team to hoist the Lombardi trophy on Hard Rock Bet. The Bucs locked in last season, winning the NFC South and posting a 10-7 record in route the the #3 seed in the NFC. While they lost in the Wild Card round to the Washington Commanders, it was another successful season for Baker and the Bucs and bettors noticed. At 30-1 / +3000, there’s been significant interest thus far.

Notably, Hard Rock Bet is the only legal sportsbook in Florida so it’s not entirely surprising to see the Bucs getting some love. In fact, the Jacksonville Jaguars (75-1 / +7500) are #4 on our list of most-bet teams for the Super Bowl, and the Miami Dolphins (75-1 / +7500) are #7.

Most-bet super bowl exact outcome

This market in itself is a bit of a longshot as you need to nail both Super Bowl participants and then correctly pick the winner. So far the most popular selections all involve the big players from both conferences.

1. Ravens to beat Eagles (30-1 / +3000)
2. Bills to beat Lions (40-1 / +4000)
3. Eagles to beat Bills (30-1 / +3000)

While all of these outcomes seem very plausible based on expectations heading into the season, bettors are taking some shots. Hard Rock Bet has seen more than ten tickets so far on the Giants to beat the Raiders in SB 60 at 5,000-1 (+500000).

The NFL’s most underrated team?

There are a lot of ways you could measure the most underrated team in the NFL, but what better way than betting data? When push comes to shove and there’s money on the line, which team just isn’t getting the action? Well, on Hard Rock Bet the Arizona Cardinals (50-1 / +5000) have seen both the fewest bets by number and handle to win Super Bowl 60.

We’re not talking about a bottom-feeder here, either. The Cardinals doubled their win total in year 2 under Jonathan Gannon, finishing 8-9 overall, have an 8.5 win over/under heading into 2025, and are currently just +130 to make the playoffs.

Are the Cards the NFL’s most underrated team? For what it’s worth, Hard Rock Bet does offer sports betting in Arizona, too, so this wouldn’t be a regional bias issue.

Conference Winners

It’s not as eye catching as betting the NFL champion, but conference winner bets are a great way to take the temperature on current sentiment.

Most-bet teams to win the NFC

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-1 / +1400)
2. Carolina Panthers (75-1 / +7500)
3. Washington Commanders (9-1 / +900)
4. Detroit Lions (4.75-1 / +475)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (3.25-1 / +325)

We wrote earlier about the popularity of the Bucs in the Super Bowl market? Well, it extends to the conference winner, too. The Buccaneers have the most-bets and handle to win the conference.

The Panthers won two of their final three games last year, but perhaps it was Bryce Young’s five-TD performance in week 18 that still lingers and offers bettors hope of a longshot with Carolina… and at 75-1 / +7500, it’s a real longshot.

Interestingly enough, the Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles are just the fifth most-bet team to win the NFC.

Most-bet teams to win the AFC

1. Buffalo Bills (3.5-1 / +350)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (40-1 / +4000)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (10-1 / +1000)
4. Baltimore Ravens (3.5-1 / +350)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (20-1 / +2000)

The Bills leading the way here is a logical outcome. They’re currently the betting favorite at +300, and there’s a general sense around the league that they might be due – having fallen just short of the Super Bowl several times in recent years.

Perhaps there’s some Florida bias here as well, but the Jags are in second place despite 40-1 odds.

You know whose not due, but probably won’t care? The Kansas City Chiefs – who have won the AFC in five out of the last six season but rank eighth on this list.

Awards action

Awards markets are unique in that bettors are presented with an impressive number of options. Unlike Super Bowl futures where there are just 32 teams to take into account, awards markets go deep – and there are some interesting trends and tickets to take note of.

Most-bet players for NFL MVP

1. Baker Mayfield (30-1 / +3000)
2. Joe Burrow (5.75-1 / +575)
3. Jayden Daniels (9-1 / +900)
4. Lamar Jackson (4.75-1 / +475)
5. Josh Allen (5.75-1 / +575)
6. Jalen Hurts (17.5-1 / +1750)
7. Trevor Lawrence (40-1 / +4000)

Baker Mayfield paces MVP market

Believe it or not, Baker Mayfield (30-1 / +3000) is the most-bet player for NFL MVP so far on Hard Rock Bet. The former Heisman Trophy winner and first overall pick let it rip last season to the tune of 4,500 passing yards (3rd) and 41 passing touchdowns (2nd). With Chris Godwin back in the mix and a new first-round wide receiver, Emeka Egbuka, bettors are seeing a path to the MVP.

There is a quick caveat here in that Baker leads the way on single bet futures. If you incorporate bets that are a part of parlays, Bengals QB Joe Burrow (5.75 – 1 / +575) moves in front. Perhaps taking a 30-1 shot on Baker doesn’t need another leg.

Notably, Patrick Mahomes comes in at 14th on this list… just a couple of spots ahead of Aaron Rodgers (18th).

Most-bet players for Offensive Player of the Year

1. Bijan Robinson (15-1 / +1500)
2. Ja Marr Chase (9-1 / +900)
3. Jahmyr Gibbs (12-1 / +1200)
4. Christian McCaffrey (20-1 / +2000)
5. Malik Nabers (30-1 / +3000)
6. Brian Thomas Jr. (40-1 / +4000)
7. Bucky Irving (60-1 / +6000)

Traditionally landing with the best non-quarterback, our data to date on the Offensive Player of the Year looks pretty much as you’d expect. Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) and Bucky Irving (Bucs) garnering this level of interest could be seen as an outlier, but both had outstanding rookie campaigns. Reigning OPOY, Saquon Barkley, is currently 10th.

Most-bet players for Defensive Player of the Year

1. Jared Verse (15-1 / +1500)
2. Aidan Hutchinson (6.5-1 / +650)
3. TJ Watt (10-1 / +1000)
4. Jalen Carter (22.5-1 / +2250)
5. Maxx Crosby (16-1 / +1600)

Jared Verse claimed the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, emerging as a bonafide game changer over the second half of the season. Hard Rock Bet players clearly liked what they saw, backing the second-year player to add more hardware to his collection in 2025/26. Notably, there’s more Steelers excitement building here with TJ Watt ranking third, just behind Aidan Hutchinson.

Most-bet players for Offensive Rookie of the Year

1. Travis Hunter (10-1 / +1000)
2. RJ Harvey (30-1 / +3000)
3. Cam Ward (3.25-1 / +325)
4. Ashton Jeanty (2.6-1 / +260)
5. Emeka Egbuka (22.5-1 / +2250)
6. Omarion Hampton (9-1 / +900)
7. Shedeur Sanders (40-1 / +4000)

The second overall pick in the draft, Travis Hunter, is the real story here ranking as the most-bet player for OROY by some distance. Broncos rookie runningback RJ Harvey has garnered the second-most tickets, with #1 overall pick and University of Miami standout Cam Ward in third.

Most-bet players for Defensive Rookie of the Year

1. Travis Hunter (11-1 / +1100)
2. Abdul Carter (2.75-1 / +275)
3. Jihaad Campbell (14-1 / +1400)
4. Mike Green (13-1 / +1300)
5. Malaki Starks (20-1 / +2000)

A lot has been made about the feasibility of playing both ways in the era of the NFL… but bettors certainly seem to believe that Travis Hunter will be heavily involved on both sides of the ball. Jihaad Campbell and Malaki Starks rank third and fifth on the list despite being taken late in the first round.

Overall takeaways

Here’s the tldr:

Bettors favoring Florida

Hard Rock Bet players are all over Florida teams heading in to 25/26.

• Bucs most-bet team to win the Super Bowl and the NFC.
• Jags are the 4th-most-bet team to win it all
• Dolphins are the 7th-most-bet team to win it all
• Baker Mayfield has the most bets to win NFL MVP
• Trevor Lawrence has the 7th most-bets to win NFL MVP
• Travis Hunter is the most-bet player for both OROY and DROY

Positivity for Pittsburgh

• Steelers (40-1 / +4000) are the third most-bet pick to win Super Bowl 60.
• One of the largest futures we’ve taken to date is a $10,000 bet on the Steelers at +4000.
• Steelers are the most-bet win total on the board
• Steelers are the most-bet team to make the playoffs
• Aaron Rodgers is in the top-20 most-bet players for NFL MVP
• TJ Watt is the 3rd-most-bet player for DPOY

Bullish on the Browns?

• Cleveland, despite having the joint-longest odds on Hard Rock Bet, are the sixth most-bet team to win SB 60 thus far
• The Browns have the 5th most bets to make the playoffs (8-1)
• Shedeur Sanders is the 23rd-most-bet player to win MVP (200-1)
• Shedeur Sanders is the 6th-most-bet player for Offensive Rookie of the Year

Go Giants

• NYG are the second most-bet team to win the Super Bowl (200-1)
• Numeous bets on the Giants to beat the Raiders in SB60 (5,000-1)
• Jaxson Dart (30-1) is the 8th-most-bet player for OROY

Little faith in Arizona

• Arizona Cardinals have the fewest number of bets to win the Super Bowl of any team
• Cardinals also have the least amount of handle of any team to win SB 60.
• One of the five least-bet teams to make the playoffs.

Chiefs fatigue

• The Chiefs are the 29th-most-bet team to win it all so far in 25/26, despite their recent dominance
• Chiefs rank as just the 8th-most-bet team to win the AFC
• Kansas City is the 23rd-most-bet team to make the playoffs
• Patrick Mahomes is just the 14th-most-bet player to win MVP

All data is based on singles wagers pulled from Hard Rock Bet, through July 27, 2025. Referenced odds are subject to change.