BettingPros PGA Show: 2026 Valero Texas Open Picks & Predictions

Welcome to the BettingPros PGA Podcast. I’m Pat Fitzmaurice, and I’m joined by Mr. Bo McBrayer. Just one more tournament to go before the Masters. We’re going to give you a preview of the Valero Texas Open and let you know who we’re betting and why.

2026 Valero Texas Open Preview

The Valero Texas Open will once again be played at TPC San Antonio. The Oaks Course is a par 72 measuring 7,438 yards.

TPC San Antonio is a fairly long course, but accuracy off the tee might be more important than length because players can get some pretty good roll on these firm fairways, and it’s critical to avoid the trees that line many of the holes. The rough at TPC San Antonio is forgiving. The trees, not so much.

We’re looking at firm, fast conditions in light of the heat wave in the Southwest earlier this month. That means the Bermuda greens at the Oaks Course can be hard to hit. Precise iron play is going to be important, but scrambling will be important too, since it can be hard to hold these greens with longer approaches.

I like the finishing stretch at TPC San Antonio. The par-3 16th has a bunker right in the middle of the green, much like Riviera. The 17th is a drivable par-4 that measures 347 yards, which adds a little spice to the finish. And the 18th is a 591-yard risk-reward par-5 with a creek in front of the green.

TPC San Antonio is designed so that downhill holes usually play into the prevailing wind and uphill holes usually play downwind. It’s expected to be breezy in San Antonio, as it typically is, with winds of 10 to 20 miles an hour for most of the week. There’s some rain in the forecast for Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday that could maybe soften up the greens and the course a little bit. It’s going to be hot Thursday and Friday, with temperatures in the upper 80s before cooling off a bit on the weekend.

The defending champion is Brian Harman. His controlled game worked well in tough, windy conditions last year. He was 9-under par and won by three strokes over Ryan Gerard. Akshay Bhatia was 20-under par when he won here in 2024, beating Denny McCarthy in a playoff, although McCarthy and Akshay both finished nine shots clear of the rest of the field. Corey Conners won the Valero Texas Open in 2023 at 15-under par. J.J. Spaun won in 2022 at 13-under.

Bo McBrayer on TPC San Antonio

There’s a very wide polarity of opinions about this event. Bettors like us – the people who analyze and tell people who to bet on – we can’t stand TPC San Antonio. It is pretty much the most unremarkable, blah, vanilla golf course on the entire Tour. So people like us don’t really see a lot of value in this type of tournament. And we also don’t like variance. This golf course is extremely variant just based on wind, period.

You saw the last two events. In 2024 it was not windy, and the winner was 20-under par. Last year it was windy, and the winner was 9-under par, and that was three clear of the next-best score. So you’re going to get a lot of variance just based on wind speed and direction. It could go anywhere from 5-under to 25-under based on wind alone.

This golf course has no redeeming qualities whatsoever other than: is the wind blowing or is the wind not blowing? And yes, that finishing stretch is interesting. It’s fun, but that’s about it. The 17th hole is fun because you’re going to see some eagles and birdies coming down the stretch. And then the 18th is a birdie hole, but it’s 591 uphill, usually downwind, and that creek dissects the fairway and creates a risk-reward split where you can go left and aggressive or lay up short of the creek, which is what ended up sinking McCarthy two years ago and helping us cash with Akshay Bhatia that week at 55-to-1.

It’s a fun event from the players’ and broadcast’s perspective because there’s so much action going on. You’re going to see some pretty wild scoring differences all the way from bogey to eagle based on wind.

Again, if you miss the fairways here, you have to worry about oak trees. It’s the Oaks Course, and those are not trees you can hit through. I know from experience, oak trees are about 90% oak. You cannot hit through them. You can’t really hit around them because they’re big, wide canopies.

So yeah, if you’re off and you’re in the trees, you’re not going to have a good time at the Oaks Course. If you’re in the fairway, it’s going to be a birdie fest. You’re going to get a cut score somewhere around even to 2-over par, but your winning score might be 23-under. There’s just so much variance. I’m just going to try to have as much fun as I can betting it with the guys that come up in my model and my gut.

This is the kind of event where we’re all kind of asking: are we looking ahead? Everybody I’ve talked to is looking ahead to next week. It’s only natural. It’s inevitable that we’re looking ahead to Augusta. So, sorry TPC San Antonio, I’m not that excited – but I’m also not not excited because it’s still action. Hopefully it’ll be a pleasant diversion for us while we bide our time waiting for the Masters.

Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week

It’s time for our Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week, presented by Hard Rock Bet. Here are our favorite bets for the Valero Texas Open.

Pat Fitzmaurice’s Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week

My Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week is Russell Henley at 18-to-1.

Pat Fitzmaurice’s Valero Texas Open Picks:

• Hard Rock Best Bet: Russell Henley (18-1)
• Robert MacIntyre (18-1)
• Sami Valimaki (150-1) & Top 10 (+900)
• Emiliano Grillo (150-1) & Top 10 (+900)
• Pontus Nyholm Top 10 (+1750)
• Kevin Streelman Top 10 (+2250)
• Charley Hoffman Top 10 (+2250)
• Keith Mitchell First Round Leader (48-1)

Bo McBrayer’s Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week

Bo McBrayer’s Valero Texas Open Picks:

• Hard Rock Best Bet: Sudarshan Yellamaraju (66-1)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+2150)
• J.J. Spaun (38-1)
• Emiliano Grillo (150-1)
• Sami Valimaki (150-1)

That’s going to do it for this week’s BettingPros PGA Podcast. Join us next week for our Masters Week Extravaganza. It’s going to be a fun show – I promise you that. Until then, so long, everyone.