We’ve got Miami of Ohio taking on Tennessee, and this is one of those games where the number jumps out right away.
Miami was a square bet in Dayton. It was basically a home game against SMU, and they dominated. They shot the lights out. Now the books are coming back and saying — that can’t happen again.
So the number is sitting at 11.5 against Tennessee.
Rick Barnes in the Tourney
Let me ask you — do you really want to back Rick Barnes in a winner-take-all college basketball tournament format?
Because the Rick Barnes factor is real. It’s really real. He’s 3-7 ATS over his last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
I’ve faded Tennessee, I’ve bet on Tennessee a ton during Rick Barnes’ tenure, and I’m always mad at myself when I bet on him. Because I forget — oh yeah, it’s Rick Barnes.
This Is a Make-or-Miss Game
Now look, on paper, Miami is completely outmatched.
KenPom makes this about an 11-point game. Tennessee’s got the 13th most efficient offense, they’re the number one offensive rebounding team in the country, and Miami’s defense is not good:
- 152nd in efficiency
- 150th in effective field goal percentage
- 105th in three-point defense
- 191st in two-point defense
They also don’t rebound. At all. They’re 330th in offensive rebounding.
So yeah — the ball better go in, because Miami is not getting second chances against this Tennessee defense.
But what if…
Miami is 22nd in three-point shooting and 3rd in two-point shooting. This is a make-or-miss game. It’s always a make-or-miss sport, but this one especially.
If Miami hits their shots, they can absolutely win this game. If Tennessee keeps them off the three-point line and they go cold? They could lose by 30. That’s in play too.
Total Lean and Game Script
That’s why I don’t love betting the total pregame.
You could argue for the over, but I actually lean under at 149.5.
Tennessee is 8-2 to the under in their last 10 games. Miami’s been trending over, but this game script feels different.
This might be more of a live betting spot — if Miami isn’t hitting early threes, this game could get out of hand and stay under because of it.
The Best Bet
But the best way to play this? Take the underdog.
The number opened as high as 15 at some books and has come down to 11.5. That tells you something.
Miami is 20-10 against the number. They’re 14-0 on the road outside of their conference tournament loss. This is a team that has shown it can travel and compete.
They just played really well against SMU. They’re fun to watch. And if they’re making shots, they’re dangerous.
- Pick: Miami (OH) +11.5
BettingPros Daily Juice Picks for March 20
- Villanova +2.5
- St. John’s vs UNI under 132
- Clemson +2.5
- Miami (OH) +11.5
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