It’s time for our Hard Rock Bet Best Bets of the Week — and once again, we’re sticking with a few of our favorite trends, teams, and value plays heading into Week 12 of the NFL season.
We’ve got a big bounce-back spot, a live underdog, and a parlay that’ll keep you locked in all Sunday long. Let’s dive in.
🦁 Detroit Lions Team Total Over 30.5
We’re starting where we began the show — in Detroit. I’m taking the Lions’ team total over 30.5 points against the New York Giants.
Here’s why: Detroit is averaging 36 points per game at home this season, and they’re coming off a tough loss. The Lions have been a different animal at Ford Field, and the Giants’ defense has been getting shredded all year.
This is the perfect get-right spot. Expect Jared Goff and company to pile it on against a New York unit that ranks near the bottom of the league in every meaningful defensive metric.
- Pick: Lions team total over 30.5 (-110)
🦁 Lions -10.5 (Bounce-Back Trend)
The process says anytime the Lions lose, you bet on them the next week, especially at home.
Since 2023, Detroit is 10–0 against the spread following a loss. That’s no fluke — this team responds under Dan Campbell.
The Giants’ defense ranks 32nd in red-zone defense, and when Detroit gets close, they’re not settling for field goals. Campbell doesn’t even know what a field goal is anymore — it’s all touchdowns, all the time.
- Pick: Lions -10.5 (-110)
⭐ Cowboys Moneyline (+145) — The Upset Special
Now for the Upset Special of the Week — the Dallas Cowboys (+145 moneyline) to knock off the Philadelphia Eagles.
Look, the Eagles just feel a little… off. After a couple of sluggish showings — including losses to the Broncos and Giants, and a sloppy 10-point outing against the Packers — this doesn’t look like the same well-oiled machine we saw early in the season.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have been dominant at home, averaging over 30 points per game in front of their fans. If they’re going to make a real run, it starts with this divisional statement win. We like the underdog here.
- Pick: Cowboys moneyline (+145)
Dallas is coming off a strong performance, and this isn’t the same Eagles defense we saw in Week 1.
🎯 Parlay of the Week (+497): Lions TT Over + Cowboys ML + 49ers ML
We’ll wrap things up with our Parlay of the Week, built to keep you sweating every time slot on Sunday.
- Lions team total over 30.5 (1 p.m. ET)
- Cowboys moneyline (4 p.m. ET)
- 49ers moneyline vs. Carolina (8 p.m. ET)
If you hit all three, you’re looking at around +497 odds (nearly 5-to-1) — and a full day of action from the 1 p.m. kickoff to Sunday night.
💰 Final Thoughts
Whether you’re backing the Lions’ firepower, riding with the Cowboys for an NFC East shocker, or chasing the parlay sweat, there’s no shortage of ways to play this weekend’s slate.
As always, download the Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app — the only legal sportsbook in Florida — bet $5, and get $150 in bonus bets when your first bet hits – no promo code needed.
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