Week 8 of the NFL season brings plenty of storylines, but for us, it’s all about finding the sharpest angles in the betting market. The Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week segment gave us a chance to dig deep into the matchups, and a few plays stood out across the board — from Baker Mayfield’s redemption arc to Bijan Robinson’s rushing potential and a celebration of National Tight End Day.
Erickson: Betting on Baker and the Buccaneers
Tampa Bay burned plenty of bettors last week, but that’s exactly why we’re buying back in. The Buccaneers at -4 are our favorite side this week against the New Orleans Saints. Baker Mayfield’s MVP talk may have cooled after an ugly outing against Detroit, but that just means there’s value on the table. Historically, Mayfield and the Bucs thrive in bounce-back spots — they’ve covered in seven of their last nine road games and are an impressive 12-4 against the spread following a loss.
We expect a chippy divisional matchup — Baker has no love lost for the Saints — and while we’ll miss the classic Mike Evans vs. Marshon Lattimore showdown, there’s still plenty of firepower to believe in Tampa Bay. The Saints’ offense hasn’t been convincing, and with their 2-10 against the spread record as an underdog, they’re a team to fade. This is the “buy the dip” moment for Baker and the Bucs.
Furman: Tight End Day: Dalton Kincaid to Shine
Every year, National Tight End Day offers a reason to celebrate one of football’s most underappreciated positions — and this week, we’re doing just that with Dalton Kincaid at +210 to score an anytime touchdown. The Bills’ rookie has become more integrated into Josh Allen’s offense each week, and he draws the dream matchup: Carolina, the NFL’s worst defense by DVOA against tight ends.
The Panthers have given up production to every tight end they’ve faced, and with Buffalo likely moving the ball at will, Kincaid should have his chances in the red zone. Expect Allen to look for him early and often as the Bills’ offense gets rolling in a get-right spot. Tight end touchdowns and celebration dances? We’re in.
Pisapia: Bijan Going Over
Few players in football are as electric with the ball in their hands as Bijan Robinson, and he’s facing a Miami Dolphins defense that’s leaking yardage at a historic rate. The Dolphins have allowed 1,115 rushing yards, the most in the NFL — no other team has even cracked 1,000. With that in mind, we’re hammering Bijan’s rushing yards over 88.5, even if it feels like a lofty total.
Add in an anytime touchdown and you’ve got a juicy combo that pushes the payout to +135. The matchup, the talent, and the workload all align for Bijan to break out in a big way against a defense that’s struggled to contain dynamic runners all season.
Upset Alert: Backing the 49ers
For our Upset Special of the Week, we’re backing the San Francisco 49ers at +1.5. This pick goes against the grain — even against our buddy Terrell’s earlier lean — but it’s one we’re confident in. Houston’s defense deserves credit, but their offense remains inconsistent, and we’ll side with the team that boasts the best player on the field: Christian McCaffrey.
With George Kittle getting healthier and the Niners’ defense hungry to rebound, we’re betting that San Francisco doesn’t just cover — they win outright.
The Parlay: Chasing Plus Money
To cap off the week, we’re stringing together a three-leg parlay that captures our favorite plays:
- 49ers +1.5
- Bijan Robinson over 88.5 rushing yards
- Colts team total over 30.5 points
That trio combines for a tasty +556 payout. The Colts’ offense continues to impress, and with Tennessee’s defense reeling, we see another big outing coming.
Referenced odds and lines are subject to change.
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