BettingPros Best Bets for NFL Week 11

NFL Week 11 is upon us, and we’re back with our best bets for this weekend.

Buccaneers +5.5 at Bills

It’s the Baker Mayfield special: a road underdog coming off a loss. This is the ultimate spot for the Buccaneers – they’ve covered in seven straight following a loss and 17 of their last 23 on the road.

The Bills, meanwhile, are a banged-up bunch. The defense has been shredded by injuries, the offense is streaky, and Josh Allen’s been pressing like a quarterback trying to do too much with too little. Tampa’s defensive front can slow down James Cook and force Allen into those turnover-prone moments that flip a spread in seconds.

Baker’s already stirring the pot in the pressers – talking cold weather, hand size, and having fun with it. You love to see it. The Bucs don’t need style points, just some grit and a cover. Lock in the +5.5 (or better if you caught it early). Live dog alert in Buffalo.

Falcons -3.5 vs Panthers

Atlanta’s season is hanging by a thread, and this is the week to buy in. The Falcons got embarrassed by Carolina earlier this year, but revenge spots like this tend to cash. At home, fighting for your playoff life, and with a desperate head coach who knows this is a must-win – the setup screams bounce-back.

Carolina’s offense is still broken. The passing game has no rhythm, the red-zone work is nonexistent, and they’ve scored more than 20 points just once over their last four games. Bijan Robinson should be fed early and often, and as long as Raheem Morris keeps it simple, the Falcons should grind out a convincing win.

Dolphins -2.5 vs Commanders (Madrid Game)

The Commanders are toast: overcooked, under-seasoned, and falling apart. Their defense is a skeleton crew, their secondary’s a mash unit, and even their best linemen are suspended or hurt. Miami should absolutely roll in this neutral-site matchup in Madrid.

Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins feast on bad teams. Always have – they’re 14-9 ATS as favorites since 2023. Expect a fast start, a fireworks show from Tua and Waddle, and a comfortable Miami cover. Start your Sunday with an easy one.

Giants +7.5 vs Packers (a.k.a. The Dead Coach Bounce Special)

The post-firing surge is real – and the Giants are next in line. With Jameis Winston stepping in and offensive guru Mike Kafka calling plays, this group suddenly has life. Winston will make you laugh, cry, and cash, sometimes all in the same quarter.

Green Bay’s offense, on the other hand, is flatlining. Jordan Love’s looked lost without Tucker Kraft, and Matt LaFleur’s play-calling has been as uninspiring as it gets. Even if the Packers jump ahead, Winston should be able to keep the backdoor open. Giants cover +7.5, and don’t be shocked if they flirt with an outright upset.

Chiefs at Broncos: Under 44.5

This AFC West matchup never ends up in a shootout. The last four totals between these two have all gone under, and both teams are among the league’s best under bets in 2025.

Andy Reid off a bye is money straight-up, but just average against the spread. The real value lies in the total: his post-bye games have hit the under three straight years. Expect a chess match more than a track meet. Both defenses are playing sharp, both QBs face tough secondaries, and red-zone stalls will define the night. Chiefs win ugly, 23-17.

Titans Team Total Under 15.5 vs Texans

Tennessee’s offense is a lost cause. Without consistent quarterback play and a line that leaks like a sieve, moving the ball against this Houston defense feels impossible.

The Texans have quietly become elite against the run and limit even above-average offenses to modest totals. Against a Titans unit averaging under 16 points per game, the under feels almost too easy. Expect plenty of punts and field goals – just how we like it.

🎸 Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week

Joe Pisapia’s Pick: Buccaneers +5.5 at Bills

The “Mayfield Magic” spot. Road dog, chip on the shoulder, fading a fading favorite. Lock it in before the number disappears.

Andrew Erickson’s Pick: Cowboys -3.5 at Raiders

Rest advantage, roster advantage, and revenge motivation. Dallas has covered 70% of games with extra rest since 2023, while the Raiders have lost seven straight as home underdogs.

Upset Special: Buccaneers (+235 ML) at Bills

Tampa’s defense matches up perfectly, and Allen’s turnovers make them live the whole way. Sprinkle the moneyline – this one could get loud in Buffalo.

Parlay of the Week (+605):

• Titans Team Total Under 15.5 (-113)
• Buccaneers +5.5 (-108)
• Giants +7.5 (-110)

Three bets, one theme: defense travels, dogs bark, and coaching chaos creates covers.

Referenced odds and lines subject to change.