3 & Out: John Middlekauff’s NCAA Tournament Championship Picks & Predictions

Obviously, Michigan is a slight favorite, but I don’t know – we’ve seen this happen before. This kind of stuff can bite you. I’ve loved Arizona this entire tournament, but over the last three or four days, with it looking like their coach might be bouncing to UNC, you have to ask: who’s talking about that? The players, the team, the assistant coaches? I think that’s an advantage for Michigan.

Dan Hurley, on the other hand, his success speaks for itself. The guy’s a lunatic, in a good way. His whole family is. I saw him tell Urban Meyer, “we’re a bunch of nut cases.” I like nut cases. Maybe I’m a little bit of one too. I don’t think UConn is as good as they’ve been, and by a miracle, they’re somehow in this game. They were getting worked in that Duke game, and let’s face it, Duke hasn’t been that good in this tournament.

It would be an incredible story if Hurley wins three out of four, but I kind of think it’s Illinois’ time – and we get an all-Big Ten matchup in the National Championship in Illinois vs. Michigan.

The best value on the board – if you’re looking at this as a one-game situation – is Illinois. Last time they played UConn, they lost by 14, but they’re comfortable in this matchup. The amount of cross tape, the familiarity – Illinois has also seen Michigan a ton. This isn’t one of those one-off tournament games between teams from different conferences. There’s real familiarity here, even in this era of constant roster turnover.

So from a value standpoint, at around +450 to win the national championship, Illinois is not a crazy pick by any means. Their offense is elite and their coach is a stud – he’s got that chip on his shoulder, JUCO background, all that.

Everyone’s probably going to take Michigan, but I’ll be honest – even if I don’t love Illinois in a one-game scenario, those odds right now to win it all are very, very enticing.

Middlekauff’s Best Bet: Illinois to win the National Championship (+450)