3 for the Money Week 9: Lions, Steelers, and a Falcons Rebound

Every week, I pick three NFL games that I love the most — my “3 for the Money.” This week, it’s a mix of teams I trust, teams I’m buying low on, and one legendary coach I refuse to fade at home.

1. Lions -8.5 vs. Vikings: The McCarthy Meltdown Spot

This is your classic “everyone’s out on Minnesota” week — and for good reason. They’re beat up, and we’re supposed to believe J.J. McCarthy can walk into Detroit and hang with Dan Campbell’s crew? Come on.

I actually like McCarthy — he’s from Michigan, which makes this game personal for fans in the Michigan area. But this situation feels bad. It reminds me of when San Francisco tried to juggle their quarterback room pre–Brock Purdy. Sometimes you just screw up the QB situation and the whole thing unravels.

The Lions are monsters at home. Jared Goff indoors, off rest, with a coaching staff that’s dialed in — that’s as safe a bet as you’ll find in the NFL. Detroit’s defense, even with secondary injuries, has been outstanding at limiting bad quarterbacks, and McCarthy hasn’t shown us anything outside of one decent quarter.

Dan Campbell is a cash cow — his Lions have covered the spread 65% of the time under his tenure. Kelvin Sheppard’s defense is flying around, and Aidan Hutchinson looks unblockable again. I don’t see Minnesota hanging.

• The Pick: Detroit -8.5. This could get ugly early.

2. Steelers +3 vs. Colts: One More Tomlin Spot

I said it earlier this week — I’m done pretending Mike Tomlin is on the hot seat. The Steelers don’t fire coaches, and Tomlin doesn’t quit. But man, this feels like a fork in the road game for Pittsburgh.

They’re back-to-back home underdogs, they just got embarrassed, and history says this is when Tomlin shines. When he’s getting three or more points as an underdog, he’s 40-21-3 against the spread. At home, it’s even better — he covers by nearly a touchdown per game.

Here’s why I like the Steelers:

• The Colts have been inflated by a soft schedule.
• Their secondary is slow and hurt.
• They can’t cover tight ends — and Pittsburgh runs two-TE sets more than half the time.
• This is one of those “voodoo” games at Acrisure — ugly, physical, turnover-filled — exactly the kind of game Pittsburgh tends to win.

T.J. Watt needs to finally take over, and if he does, they can pull this off outright.

• The Pick: Pittsburgh +3. History, trends, and desperation all line up.

3. Falcons +5.5 at Patriots: The Buy-Low, Sell-High Special

I’ve faded New England the last few weeks and gotten burned. I’m not doing it again blindly — but this feels like the perfect spot to buy low on Atlanta.

The Falcons were favored by a touchdown last week, got absolutely smoked, and now everyone’s bailing. That’s exactly when I get in. In the last 20 years, teams that lose by 20+ as big favorites cover 67% of the time the next week. It’s the NFL’s ultimate overreaction pattern.

I like this spot for Atlanta because:

• They should get Drake London back — and that changes everything.
• Their defense is getting healthier and ranks 2nd in the NFL in preventing explosive passes, which is a big deal against Drake Maye.
• The Patriots’ linebackers can’t cover running backs or tight ends — so this could be a big Bijan and Kyle Pitts game.

Look, the Patriots are good — Vrabel’s turned them around fast — but this line’s too inflated. The market’s gone too far.

• The Pick: Falcons +5.5. Buy low, sell high, simple as that.

Wrapping Up

So there you go — my “3 for the Money” this week:

1. Lions -8.5 vs. Vikings
2. Steelers +3 vs. Colts
3. Falcons +5.5 at Patriots

Detroit’s dominance, Tomlin’s pride, and a bounce-back spot for Atlanta — that’s how you make money in November.

We’ll see how it shakes out, but remember: the NFL is all about timing and value. And this week, I think we’re on the right side of both.