Every Sunday lately feels a little strange. Between the London games and the double Monday night matchups, the rhythm of an NFL weekend has been off. You wake up, there’s football from Europe before breakfast, then a thin early slate, and somehow you’re watching Titans-Raiders in the afternoon wondering how we got here.
That’s life in this version of the NFL – messy, uneven, and full of weird spots. But that’s also where the value is. The more unpredictable the schedule and the more overreactions we see, the better the edges get.
So here we go. These are my three HAMMERS for NFL Week 7.
1. New Orleans Saints (+4.5) at Chicago Bears
The narrative around the Saints is way off. People talk about them like they’re tanking for a draft pick, but this team’s been competitive every single week. Spencer Rattler, who looked unplayable last year, has been solid – nothing flashy, but capable. And “capable” goes a long way when the rest of your roster can hang around.
Chicago’s in a tricky spot. They’re coming off an emotional Monday night win, the kind that usually leads to a flat performance. Caleb Williams has made progress – he’s taking fewer sacks and processing quicker – but he’s still inconsistent throwing against pressure.
New Orleans isn’t elite, but they’re disciplined, and they can absolutely win this kind of ugly game. Getting more than a field goal feels generous. Give me the Saints and the points.
2. Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles look broken. The offense that used to bully teams has turned into a disjointed mess. The play calling’s been off since Shane Steichen left, the offensive line’s banged up, and the run game has completely evaporated.
This week they face a nightmare matchup in the Vikings. Brian Flores’ defense plays more Cover 2 and zone than anyone – and that’s exactly what gives Jalen Hurts trouble. He’s been one of the league’s worst quarterbacks against zone and blitz looks this year. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defense has regressed too: less pressure, more injuries, and secondary issues all over the place.
Minnesota’s rested, well-coached, and at home. This is a statement spot for them, and I’ll happily take the +1.5.
3. Las Vegas Raiders (+11.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
It’s hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes – but it’s even harder to trust him to cover double digits. Historically, Kansas City wins these games straight up but rarely by enough to cash tickets. And funny enough, both of Mahomes’ outright losses as a heavy favorite have come against the Raiders.
The Chiefs’ offense is trending upward – Kelce looks fresher, the speed guys on the outside are stretching the field again – but the Raiders have the pieces to make this uncomfortable. They’ll try to run the ball, chew clock, and count on Maxx Crosby to wreck a drive or two.
Vegas is far from stable, but in a division rivalry with a huge spread, I’ll always take the ugly side.
The Hammers for NFL Week 7:
- Saints +4.5
- Vikings +1.5
- Raiders +11.5
All odds and lines are presented by our partners at Hard Rock Bet and subject to change.
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