Jason Timpf’s 76ers vs. Knicks NBA Playoffs Series Breakdown & Prediction

As we continue our playoff series previews, this one between the New York Knicks and the Philadelphia 76ers stands out as one of the most fascinating second-round matchups.

We’re coming off a 2-2 regular season split between these teams. Joel Embiid only played in two of those games, and interestingly, the road team won both. One of those Knicks wins in Philly featured a wild subplot—Embiid fouling Karl-Anthony Towns out in just 16 minutes. That dynamic matters, because Towns’ ability to stay on the floor and space Embiid defensively could swing this series.

When Towns fouled out, the Knicks went small, putting OG Anunoby on Embiid. They leaned into speed, pulled Embiid into actions, and generated open threes by exploiting Philly’s lack of foot speed. That’s a theme we’ll keep coming back to.

The Odds and the Value Angle

According to Hard Rock Bet, the Knicks are slight favorites at -260, with the Sixers as underdogs at +210.

This is where things get interesting. I’ll get into my pick later, but just on the surface, those odds suggest a gap that might not fully reflect how close this series actually is.

The Embiid Defensive Problem

This series presents a completely different defensive challenge for Joel Embiid compared to what he just saw.

Against Boston, Embiid could sit back in drop coverage and protect the rim. That worked because Boston’s primary creators, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, struggled shooting off the dribble in those situations. That’s not the case here.

Jalen Brunson is a different type of scorer. He’s more dynamic as a pull-up shooter, more comfortable in the midrange, and craftier navigating ball screens. We saw it in the 2024 playoff matchup—Brunson averaged nearly 36 points per game and repeatedly attacked Embiid in those actions.

Now, Philly does have better personnel this time around. VJ Edgecombe brings speed at the point of attack, and Paul George is a massive upgrade defensively compared to what they had before. That gives them more tools to fight over screens and make life harder on Brunson.

But the core issue remains: if Embiid is pulled into space, the Knicks can put Philly into rotation—and that’s where they’re most vulnerable.

The Towns Factor vs. Small Ball

What makes the Knicks so tricky is their versatility.

Karl-Anthony Towns at center forces Embiid to guard the perimeter. You can’t just concede threes to Towns—if you do, you’re going to lose. That alone changes Philly’s defensive structure.

Then there’s the Knicks’ ability to go small. Lineups with guys like Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges can hold up physically while maximizing speed and spacing. That’s dangerous for a team like Philly that plays smaller guards.

At the same time, there’s a tradeoff. Embiid can punish those small lineups offensively. We’ve already seen him get deep post position against OG and either score easily or create open looks for teammates.

So it becomes a balancing act—can the Knicks stretch Embiid out enough defensively without getting punished on the other end?

The Swing Factor: Embiid’s Offensive Dominance

This is the biggest key in the series.

If Embiid can dominate Karl-Anthony Towns one-on-one—draw fouls, wear him down, force adjustments—that changes everything. It likely pushes Mitchell Robinson into a bigger role.

And while Robinson makes Embiid work more offensively, it also allows Philly to play deeper drop coverage defensively. That keeps them out of rotation, which is exactly where they want to be.

If Philly can defend two-on-two instead of scrambling, their chances of getting consistent stops go way up.

How the Knicks Can Counter

One way the Knicks can attack is through off-ball action.

We saw this concept used effectively in earlier matchups—forcing defenses to make decisions on back screens and switches. With Towns as a passing hub, they can pull Embiid away from the rim and then create cutting opportunities behind the defense.

If Philly doesn’t switch cleanly, it’s dunks. If they do switch, it can create mismatches deep in the paint.

Again, the goal is simple: keep Embiid out of position and force defensive breakdowns.

On the Other End: Embiid vs. Double Teams

Defensively, the Knicks will likely test Embiid as a passer.

We’ve seen this before—overplay his high side, send doubles from the baseline, and force him to read the floor under pressure. In past matchups, that’s led to turnovers or forced shots.

Embiid has improved in this area, especially in the last round, but this will be a major chess match. If he handles doubles well, Philly’s offense opens up. If not, the Knicks can disrupt their rhythm.

The X-Factor

Tyrese Maxey has been outstanding in this matchup—efficient, explosive, and difficult for the Knicks to contain. He averaged over 30 points in the regular season meetings and has consistently gotten to his spots.

Paul George, meanwhile, struggled in those games but is playing much better now. Expect him to be more involved, especially targeting smaller defenders.

But ultimately, this series comes down to Joel Embiid.

If Embiid can dominate offensively and force the Knicks into lineups that allow Philly to stay in drop coverage, the Sixers have a real path to control this series.

If the Knicks can consistently pull Embiid into space and create rotation, they’ll have the edge.

Jason Timpf’s 76ers vs. Knicks Pick

• Knicks in seven: +400

They’re slightly deeper, they have home-court advantage, and they’ve been a bit more physically resilient. There’s also the lingering question of Embiid’s durability over a long series.

That said, this feels like a coin flip. And that’s where the betting value comes in.

Even though I’m leaning Knicks, Sixers at +210 on Hard Rock Bet stands out as strong value. In a series this close, getting better than 2-to-1 odds on the team with the best player is hard to ignore.