BettingPros PGA Show: 2026 American Express Picks & Predictions

This is a pro-am, one of only two pro-ams on the tour schedule. It’s played on three different courses, has a giant field of 156 players, and uses a 54-hole cut rather than a 36-hole cut. Everyone plays one round at each of the three courses, and then the cut makers play the final round on the Pete Dye Stadium Course.

You’re looking at short courses, tame rough, small poa greens, and a setup that doesn’t want to punish amateurs too much. The scores tell the story: -25, -27, -29. You have to make birdies. Birdie or better percentage matters. Par three scoring matters. Opportunities gained matters. This is a birdie fest.

Normally, most of the top players skip the American Express, but this year we’re getting one of the best fields we’ve ever seen. With the Sentry canceled, the A-listers want to get dialed in before the California swing. Scottie Scheffler is here, and so is a deep field full of guys who can absolutely win it if they get hot.

We’re not going to see a lot of wind. The weather should be perfect. Highs in the low 80s, a lot of sun, light winds. This is a week to fire at flags, roll in putts, and keep making birdies until somebody separates.

Now let’s get into our cards.

Bo McBrayer’s American Express Picks

All I’m going to save Scottie for is live betting and/or parlays with football games because I can’t help myself. Outside of Scheffler, here’s who I’m looking at:

• Russell Henley (+2500)
• Harry Hall (+4000)
• Akshay Bhatia (+8000)
• Sami Valimaki (+14000)
  • Top 10 (+800)
•  Lee Hodges (+17000)
  • Top 20 (+380)
• Luke Clanton (+25000)
  • Top 20 (+550)
• Brian Campbell (+200000)
  • Top 10 (+5500)
  • Top 20 (+1900)

Birdie or better percentage is number one on my list and it’s very heavily weighted in my model. I’m looking at opportunities gained, birdies or better gained, and general ball striking.

A little bit of a separator stat for this event is Par 3 strokes gained because those are the only difficult holes. Scottie Scheffler isn’t even in the Top 25 in strokes gained in this field in my model, which makes it interesting.

Sami Valimaki is that perfect combination I’m looking for. He’s a birdie-making machine. He’s eighth in this field in birdie or better percentage on easy scoring conditions and second in strokes gained per Par 3. Loads and loads of talent. Not the most consistent player, but this is the kind of birdie fest where he’s just going to let it rip.

Brian Campbell has ticked us off multiple times by beating us as a super duper long shot that nobody had any business betting. Except this is exactly the kind of course where he burns people. He has almost no ball striking to speak of, but his short game is so good that he makes a ton of birdies. You don’t have to invest much. Put a dollar on each and let it ride.

Harry Hall is another birdie-making machine. Great putter. Fifth in Par 3 scoring last year. I was able to get him at 45-1, which puts him in a completely different pricing tier.

Pat Fitzmaurice’s American Express Picks

I’m just going to give my outrights right now. I haven’t decided on Top 5s or Top 10s yet, but this is where my card starts:

• Si Woo Kim (+5000)
• Harry Hall (+4000)
• Ryan Gerard (+8000)
• Sami Valimaki (+14000)
• Bud Cauley (+18000)

This is a putting contest. John Rahm called it that a while ago, and it is. The greens are poa on all three courses. You need to hit it close, but you also need to roll it in.

Si Woo Kim won here in 2021 and finished Top 25 in each of the next three years.

Ryan Gerard almost won last week. I can get back on board with that. He’s proven he can contend, and 80-1 feels like a fair number.

Sami Valimaki was red hot during the fall swing. Over a three-week stretch in November, he finished second at the Worldwide Technology Championship, 18th at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, and won the RSM. He’s a terrific putter, good on approach, and the weakest part of his game is driving, which is mitigated here because you can leave the driver in the bag.

Bud Cauley hasn’t played this event since 2020, but he had four Top 15 finishes here over a five-year stretch, including a third and a fourth. His strokes gained numbers here have been excellent, and he’s coming off a solid showing at the Sony.

There are some interesting names at the top, some interesting names in the middle, and a lot of upside down the board. This entire field is capable of winning if they make enough birdies.

That’s what this week is about. Make birdies. Make putts. What’s not to like?

We’ll be back next week to preview the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. Until then, so long, everyone.