Richard Sherman’s NFL Divisional Round Predictions

The divisional round is where the playoffs start to feel different. These aren’t unfamiliar opponents or lucky teams that slipped in. These are matchups built on familiarity and physical football. Short weeks, injuries, and momentum all matter, but what it really comes down to is execution when everyone already knows what’s coming.

This weekend is loaded with games where the point spreads don’t reflect how tight these matchups actually are. Division rivals, elite defenses, and quarterbacks under pressure everywhere you look.

Let’s go game by game.

49ers (+7.5) at Seahawks

This is a divisional matchup that feels impossible to separate. These teams just played, and now they’re seeing each other again on short notice – something that rarely happens in the NFL. The familiarity makes everything tighter, faster, and more physical.

San Francisco has been battered all season, losing key players and constantly adjusting. But they’ve weathered every storm so far. The defense played much better in the second half against Seattle last time and carried that confidence into their game against Philadelphia. The return of key linebackers has brought discipline and stability, especially in run fits and tackling.

Seattle’s defense is the defining unit in this matchup. Their front gave the 49ers problems, particularly against the run, and forced San Francisco into poor third-down efficiency. That pressure creates hesitation, and hesitation leads to mistakes. If the 49ers can’t establish the run, everything gets harder.

On offense, Seattle has to run the ball again. They had success with it in the first matchup, and if that continues, it takes pressure off Sam Darnold. With a defense this good behind him, Darnold can afford to be aggressive, especially pushing the ball downfield when needed.

That being said, 7.5 points feels too large for a divisional playoff game like this. Everything about it points to a one-score game that comes down to the final possession. I’ll take San Francisco with the points.

Rams at Bears (+4)

This matchup is defined by weather and defense. Chicago is at home, in cold and potentially harsh weather, and those conditions naturally favor the team that can run the ball and protect it.

The concern for the Rams is defense. They’ve given up significant points down the stretch and have struggled to consistently stop the run. That’s dangerous against a Chicago team that leans heavily on its ground game and uses it to open up opportunities.

Caleb Williams’ ability to escape pressure and extend plays puts stress on the Rams’ secondary, which has already shown vulnerability. Chicago doesn’t need perfection from him – they need ball security, smart decisions, and production off schedule.

Matthew Stafford isn’t the concern. He’s played in these conditions before and has proven he can handle playoff environments. But if the Rams can’t slow Chicago’s run game or generate turnovers, they’ll be forced into a tight, physical game that favors the home team.

Chicago’s defense creates takeaways, and if they win the turnover battle, they put themselves in position to advance. Give me the Bears +4.

Bills at Broncos (+1)

This line reflects respect for Josh Allen and his playoff résumé. He consistently shows up in these moments, using both his arm and his legs to create offense when things break down.

Denver’s defense is legitimate. They can stop the run, play man coverage at a high level, and generate pressure without selling out. That gives them a real chance against any opponent. The question is offense.

Bo Nix doesn’t need to be spectacular, but he can’t put the ball in harm’s way. The blueprint is simple: protect the football, use his legs when needed, and let the defense dictate the game. If Denver plays clean football, they can absolutely win.

Buffalo will lean on balance. Josh Allen will be aggressive, but James Cook’s ability to move the chains and control possession is critical. The Bills’ defense is often overlooked, but it’s been one of the best pass defenses in the league and won’t make things easy for a young quarterback.

This feels like a game where execution matters more than star power. If Denver’s defense plays the way it has all season, they belong here. I’m on Denver -1.

Texans (+3) at Patriots

This matchup comes down to defense. Houston is playing with momentum, belief, and a defense that attacks every snap. They don’t disguise who they are – they line up, hit you in the face, and dare you to hold up.

The Texans’ defensive front and secondary are deep, aggressive, and physical. They generate pressure consistently, and when the game becomes physical, that style benefits them in the playoffs.

Offensively, Houston doesn’t need fireworks. Protect the football, manage the game, and let the defense control the tone. When they do that, they’re extremely difficult to beat.

New England has been efficient and confident at home, but they haven’t faced a defense like this. Drake Maye has had an excellent season, and this is the type of game that determines whether he’s ready to take the next step.

Three points reflects home-field advantage, but this matchup feels closer than that. If Houston’s defense plays at its usual level, they have enough to overcome it. I’ll take Houston +3.