Sharp or Square: What the Board Tells Us for NFL Week 8

Welcome to Bye-ageddon: that rare NFL week where half the betting board disappears and the survivors are forced to navigate a minefield of uncertainty. Six teams on a bye week means fewer options for us, and more room for regret. For bettors, it’s the kind of week that tests conviction, discipline, and maybe a little bit of self-respect.

Last week was humbling. We went 2-3 with our five favorite picks – a mix of good reads gone bad and solid logic betrayed by the AFC South. The Chargers, Texans, and Titans all undid us in different ways. Through seven weeks, we’re sitting at 21-14 on our five picks. Respectable, but the grind continues.

 

Chargers (-3) vs Vikings

There’s no team in football that tests our patience quite like the Los Angeles Chargers. On paper, they have talent. In reality, they have trauma. We said it last week: if you bet the Chargers, you have to pray. Justin Herbert’s offensive line is a turnstile and his defense folds after every sign of life.

Watching them against Indianapolis was painful – every small spark was immediately doused by a defense that looked like it had quit. That’s not a team you can trust, and this week’s short-rest matchup against the Vikings only amplifies the uncertainty.

Dolphins (+7) at Falcons

Then there’s Miami. We loved the clip of Mike McDaniel taking a sarcastic jab at his quarterback: “My expectation is that we don’t throw ten picks.” It sounded like a frustrated dad, but it might’ve been chess, not checkers. McDaniel was doing to Tua what Tua did the week before – throwing subtle shade back at his QB after he publicly questioned the rest of the team. It’s rare to see that kind of layered message in public, but it speaks volumes about a locker room searching for accountability.

The models love Miami this week against Atlanta. Everything says it’s a perfect “buy-low” spot – bad teams off blowouts tend to be undervalued. But it’s hard to put money on a defense ranked near the bottom in every rushing metric against a Falcons team that can run wild with Bijan Robinson. Sometimes the model screams value, and your gut just says, don’t do it. This feels like one of those weeks.

Ravens (-6.5) vs Bears

Baltimore might be our favorite “get-right” spot of the week. The Ravens are laying 6.5 points against Chicago, and it feels short – assuming Lamar Jackson’s health holds up. Baltimore has had a month of frustration bottled up. The Bears’ recent hot streak has people overrating them, but this is a physical mismatch. The Ravens’ defense is healthier, their offensive identity is clearer, and they historically crush NFC opponents. If Lamar’s even 85%, Baltimore rolls.

Patriots (-7) vs Browns

There’s an old rule in Sharp or Square: it’s Patriots or pass when New England is laying a touchdown or less at home. The public will see a number that feels inflated, but there’s logic here. Rookie quarterbacks on the road against disciplined defenses almost never cover. The Browns are a classic “model pick” – the math likes them, but the context doesn’t.

Drake Maye’s efficiency has masked the fact that New England’s defense, especially with Christian Gonzalez shutting down half the field, has been dominant. The Browns’ offense doesn’t travel, and Dillon Gabriel isn’t ready for pressure. Patriots or nothing.

Eagles (-7) vs Giants

The Eagles are laying 7 points against the Giants, and everything in us says “trust Philly.” But there’s a reason we hesitate. This Eagles team has been a half-team all year – flashes of brilliance followed by long lapses of inconsistency.

The Giants, for their part, keep outperforming expectations. Maybe it’s fluky, maybe it’s sustainable, but when veterans like Brandon Graham are un-retiring mid-season, you know the Eagles are scrambling for stability. Sometimes staying away is the sharpest play.

Simon Says: Texans (-1) vs 49ers

Our official Simon Says play of the week: Houston -1 against San Francisco. It’s the kind of ugly, contrarian play we love. Houston’s defense forced four turnovers, scored a defensive touchdown, and still lost – mostly because CJ Stroud was flat-out awful. That’s precisely why we’re buying back in.

Good defenses don’t forget how to play, and bad offensive games often create market overreactions. San Francisco’s win over Atlanta was more about Christian McCaffrey’s heroics than sustainable dominance. The Texans are undervalued, and the line movement confirms pros are thinking the same way.

Panthers (+7.5) vs Bills

It feels weird to say this, but we kind of love Andy Dalton here.

The Panthers have a strong run game, a defense that’s improving, and get a Bills team that hasn’t looked right in weeks. Buffalo’s reputation is doing more work than its roster right now. 7.5 points is too much for a team with this many holes.

If Bryce Young were healthy, this line would be six or less – so we’ll take the value, close our eyes, and hope the Red Rifle still has a few deep shots left.

Colts (-13.5) vs Titans

At 13.5, Indianapolis looks inflated – but we’re still on the Colts. They’re one of the league’s most well-oiled machines right now, and their run game is lethal. Tennessee, meanwhile, is dysfunctional and demoralized. There’s always danger in big divisional spreads, but Indy’s motivation and rhythm are too strong to ignore. Elite teams cover big numbers because they don’t take their foot off the gas.

Broncos (-3) vs Cowboys

Finally, my favorite bet of the week: Denver -3 over Dallas. It’s a classic buy-low spot – good team at home after an underwhelming performance, facing an overvalued team fresh off a blowout win. The Broncos’ defense creates pressure and chaos, and Dak Prescott struggles when forced off script. Add in Denver’s home field and matchup advantage on third downs, and it’s the perfect storm for value. Sometimes optimism isn’t delusion – it’s conviction.

Steelers (+3) vs Packers (Sunday Night Football)

Mike Tomlin as a home dog is practically an auto-play.

He’s 9-2-3 against the spread as an underdog of three or more at home, and this week’s setup feels tailor-made. Green Bay has talent, but no chemistry. Pittsburgh has rest, rhythm, and that edge Tomlin teams are famous for.

The Steelers got embarrassed last time out – and Tomlin teams don’t lose focus twice. This is a bounce-back special.

Final Thoughts

With six teams on a bye, every edge matters. It’s one of those weeks where the board looks ugly, the favorites feel fragile, and every sharp play makes you queasy. But that’s where the money is made. From Baltimore’s redemption to Houston’s defiance, we’re embracing the discomfort.

That’s what separates Sharp from Square – the willingness to bet what feels wrong because it’s actually right.