Sharp or Square: Week 5 Recap, Early Week 6 Bets

Some Sundays are prizefights. This one was a carnival ride: tilting, spinning, and occasionally making you swear off Survivor pools forever. We opened 0-1 after the Rams whiffed Thursday night, hit Sunday sitting 2-2, and now everything rides on Jags +3.5 on Monday night. It could have been 4-1. It could have been 1-4. Of course, it’s 2-2. That’s the NFL. That’s sports betting. That’s us.

The easy one (because there had to be one)

Texans-Ravens was our layup. We flagged Houston early at +3.5 and told you the number was wrong. It closed Texans -2.5 and never sweated. C.J. Stroud looked like he was out for a Sunday stroll on some scrambles; Baltimore’s defense looked like it was out for a bye. Final: 44-10, the kind of rocking-chair cover that lets you forget the rest of the slate is an emotional hostage situation. Simon Says goes to 2-0 on the week, even if he’ll tell you he’s dead inside.

The meltdown we can’t stop talking about

We won’t pretend otherwise: the Cardinals loss broke us. Survivor tickets in the shredder, CLV in the trash, and a fourth quarter that felt like officiating improv night. A touchdown ruled no-touchdown. An INT-return TD stood on what looked like wishful thinking about “possession” and a “football move.” A 21-6 glide path became a 22-21 crater. We’ve seen weird. This was weirder. Simon called the Cardinals a “loser organization,” and if you lived that swing, you understand the heat.

When “Jets are gonna Jet” is a system

The number flipped hard mid-morning. Dallas announced four of five O-linemen out, plus injuries to key contributors, and money steamrolled the Jets from small underdogs to small favorites. None of it mattered.

Sloppy penalties (10), a soul-crushing fumble inside the 10 with four minutes left in the half, then a two-score Dallas avalanche in 95 seconds spanning two possessions. By intermission, dead. Dak stayed clean, the Jets produced five sacks – for the Cowboys. That’s right: Dallas doubled its season sack total in a single game, and New York never mastered the stuff that “takes no talent,” like not jumping early. It was last week’s script, photocopied. Brass Balls lost. We’ll wear it.

The comeback we almost talked ourselves out of

Commanders +2.5 was our last add – and for 20 minutes, it felt like an error. Jaden Daniels looked rusty in a knee brace, the offense stuck in mud, and then the hinge play: a Chargers punt return TD wiped out by roughing the punter. New life, new cleats, and a third-and-16 dart up the seam that snapped Daniels into rhythm.

From there, Washington pushed the ball downfield, mixed in tempo, and found its playmakers. Meanwhile, the Chargers bled bodies on defense, picked up drive-killing penalties, and watched two Herbert lasers erased by flags. Not pretty. Profitable. And a reminder why we lean into battered rosters as favorites: attrition shows up late.

On the Eagles, Broncos, and luck expiring

We loved the Broncos number all week, got spooked by the dip to 3.5, then watched Denver erase a 17-3 fourth-quarter deficit – something their franchise had basically never done. Payton put Bo Nix in low-risk situations, the Eagles stacked penalties at the worst times (including a long Devonta Smith gain wiped out by an illegal shift), and a clear intentional grounding no-call kept a drive alive.

Philly’s offense has looked “almost there” for a month; this time, “almost” emptied out in 15 fourth-quarter yards. It’s early. But if it’s mid-December and they’re still stuck at 17 at home, we’ll be talking coordinator changes.

Why late money matters (and when we ignore it)

A quick word for the chat: yes, we care about late moves. No, we don’t worship them. Steam can be sharp, but books also move to balance risk when a wave of injury info hits. The Jets move to -2.5 was info + herd, not necessarily edge; meanwhile, Commanders-Chargers sat at 2.5 at public shops all week – a different signal entirely. The tell we like most? When a number doesn’t budge despite volume. That was Washington. That happens more than Twitter thinks.

Saints, Panthers, and the rookie reality check

We leaked confidence on New Orleans, then watched the exact handicap we’d discussed for a week play out. Jaxson Dart looked great for a quarter, then coughed up a back-breaking fumble to open the second half and went pumpkin as the Saints kept leaning, drive after drive. Rookie QB, rookie RB, no Malik Nabers – you can’t put an entire offense on first-year shoulders and expect four quarters of clean football. Spencer Rattler, on the other hand, stacked his first win with a gorgeous 87-yard strike and a tidy second half. File that away: the market is still underrating him.

Heroes and goats

Chad’s “Shame of the Week” goes to the Jets defense for surrendering 143 yards and 14 points in 95 seconds bridging halftime – a masterclass in how to lose two games’ worth of leverage in under two minutes.

Simon’s “Shame of the Week” is broader: Cardinals football and the officiating that abetted the collapse. On the good side, tip of the cap to Washington safety Quan Martin for the forced fumble that flipped Chargers-Commanders from 17-0 pending to a live dog with teeth. Those are the plays that rescue a card.

Early Week 6 leans (numbers pending movement)

• Cleveland +5 at Pittsburgh: Divisional dog in a smash-mouth spot; the opener felt inflated. We’ll shop for +5 and watch the travel/rest narratives push this around.
• Colts -5 vs. Cardinals: Public as it gets – and we still prefer the matchup, especially if Arizona’s QB room isn’t 100%. We’ll take early 5s and reassess if Kyler’s status firms up.
• Detroit vs. Kansas City: If the market anoints Detroit No. 1 and gifts us a “public dog,” we’ll be patient and look to grab Chiefs as a short dog if Monday goes sideways. Pure price discovery.

We’ll never apologize for a 2-2 Sunday with a live Monday night ticket. That’s the job: avoid tilt, trust numbers over logos, and remember that the coin flips cut both ways. Today, the Texans and Commanders carried us. Tomorrow, it’s Duval’s turn.